{
  "apiVersion": "1",
  "generatedAt": "2026-11-14T02:28:24.265Z",
  "mode": "published-snapshot",
  "live": false,
  "data": {
    "schemaVersion": 1,
    "asOf": "2026-11-11T02:00:00Z",
    "status": "experimental",
    "validated": false,
    "dataAudit": {
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        "bouts": 8988,
        "events": 796,
        "boutsWithPairedStrikingStats": 8967,
        "firstEvent": "1994-03-11T00:00:00+00:00",
        "lastEvent": "2026-11-07T00:00:00+00:00"
      },
      "PFL": {
        "bouts": 229,
        "events": 22,
        "boutsWithPairedStrikingStats": 227,
        "firstEvent": "2025-12-05T00:00:00-05:00",
        "lastEvent": "2026-10-16T23:00:00-04:00"
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      "conflictingBoutsNotEnriched": 192,
      "unmatchedSecondaryExcluded": true
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    "availabilityLimitation": "Retrospective snapshots retrieved now; original publication/correction times unavailable. Backtests reconstruct prior-event statistics, not audited point-in-time archives.",
    "method": "Separate promotion logistic models; prior-event-day statistics; 60/10/10/20 chronological partitions; tuning then temperature calibration then untouched test; 1000 event-day bootstrap resamples.",
    "models": {
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            "last": "2021-04-17"
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            "days": 79,
            "first": "2021-04-24",
            "last": "2023-03-04"
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            "days": 159,
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            "last": "2026-11-07"
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        "baselines": {
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                "meanProbability": 0.3766285269535261,
                "winFrequency": 0.35714285714285715
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                "lower": 0.4,
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                "lower": 0.6,
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                "winFrequency": 0.6190476190476191
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                "lower": 0.7,
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                "meanProbability": 0.7197133160537166,
                "winFrequency": 1
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            "tau": 4,
            "finish_bonus": 0.25,
            "inact_rate": 0.1
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          "baselineSource": "ufcstats-mirror",
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          "difference": "modelMinusBaseline",
          "rule": "Pass only if every holdout bout matches walk-forward elo-tuned-v1, n>=200, events>=20, and the upper bound of the event-cluster 95% CI for (model - tuned Elo) log loss is < 0. Brier is reported with the same interval and is not part of the pass rule. validated stays false unless this passes.",
          "minBouts": 200,
          "minEvents": 20,
          "n": 1070,
          "events": 159,
          "holdoutBouts": 1070,
          "matched": 1070,
          "unmatched": 0,
          "matchRate": 1,
          "matchDetail": {
            "boutId": 1070,
            "nameAndDate": 0,
            "nameAndDateWindow": 0,
            "outcomeDisagreements": 0,
            "ambiguous": 0
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          "unmatchedBoutIds": [],
          "model": {
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          "bootstrapDraws": 2000,
          "bootstrapSeed": 71,
          "cluster": "event",
          "blockers": [
            "upper 95% CI of (model - elo-tuned-v1) log loss is not < 0"
          ],
          "passed": false
        },
        "marketComparison": {
          "informational": true,
          "requiredForGate": false,
          "n": 0,
          "reason": "Market comparison failed: TypeError: paired_difference_ci() missing 1 required positional argument: 'events'"
        }
      },
      "PFL": {
        "promotion": "PFL",
        "status": "insufficient_history",
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        "split": {
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            "days": 0,
            "first": "2025-12-05",
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          "tune": {
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            "first": "2026-06-28",
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          "calibrate": {
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            "days": 0,
            "first": "2026-07-19",
            "last": "2026-07-26"
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            "first": "2026-08-08",
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        "minPriorDecisiveBouts": 3,
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        "validated": false,
        "deploymentApproved": false,
        "reason": "Too few eligible bouts/classes in one or more chronological partitions."
      }
    },
    "modelVersion": "ufc-logistic-v1-d0286496ceca",
    "collection": {
      "ufcstats": "796 completed event pages, validated via Scrapy browser-cache replay. Live crawl returned a loading page.",
      "pfl": "Detailed cached official statistics for 22 completed events. Scrapy respects robots restrictions on the statistics feed; public event metadata is collected separately.",
      "sportsDataIO": "Excluded: trial data may be scrambled."
    },
    "candidateModels": {
      "FightMatrix": {
        "enabled": false,
        "researchGatePassed": false,
        "checkedAt": "2026-11-11",
        "reason": "Not enabled: the published-model refit did not beat tuned Elo with sufficient confidence on its 1,070-bout holdout. Existing experimental UFC estimates remain available.",
        "holdoutBouts": 1070,
        "eventDays": 159,
        "modelLogLoss": 0.6586688812261089,
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        "prospectivelyValidated": false
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}